iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
6m
ahead
Predictive Factors
Causally predictive factors identified as the most influential for the value of the selected instrument at the time point 6m away:
Hong Kong / U.S. Foreign Exchange Rate USDHKD
SPDR S&P 500 ETF
Cognizant Technology Solutions Corporation Class A Common Stock
Simon Property Group
China / U.S. Foreign Exchange Rate USDCNY
as of
Our Probabilistic Prediction
We train models based on the identified causal predictors and run them, with each model predicting a set of possible outcomes for the time point 6m away. The sets of possible outcomes are then aggregated.
Goodness of Probabilistic Prediction
Test of hypothesis that a sample of the realised probability level is uniformly distributed between 0 and 1 (whitepaper), using significance level 0.001 for the p-value. The user is free to use another significance level e.g. 0.01, 0.05 for the test.
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
🟢
p-value: 0.175
> 0.001
Trades
Each model casts a single vote on the likely direction of change. If a trade is executed, the size, in terms of the number of shares or lots, is proportional to the majority vote, and the trade is kept open for the duration of the forecast horizon, which is 6m. This exercise is repeated every day.
The position for the next day, averaged over the sizes of currently opened trades, is as follows
|
% Up |
% Down |
% Undecided |
| iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF |
52% |
28% |
16% |
with respect to the time point respectively,
|
Time |
Value |
| iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF |
Fri 2025-01-17 UTC |
87.19 |
Performance of Past Trades
The Sharpe ratio is calculated on returns measured as the difference between values rather than in percentage, assuming zero trading cost.
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
|
Active |
Buy-and-Hold |
Sharpe ratio
(the higher the better) |
-
|
-
|
Solvency II Value-at-Risk 99.5%
(the lower the better) |
8.16
|
15.17
|