Switzerland / U.S. Foreign Exchange Rate USDCHF
6m
ahead
Predictive Factors
Causally predictive factors identified as the most influential for the value of the selected instrument at the time point 6m away:
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Common Stock
SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF
DuPont de Nemours Inc
iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF
The Walt Disney Company
as of
Our Probabilistic Prediction
We train models based on the identified causal predictors and run them, with each model predicting a set of possible outcomes for the time point 6m away. The sets of possible outcomes are then aggregated.
Goodness of Probabilistic Prediction
Test of hypothesis that a sample of the realised probability level is uniformly distributed between 0 and 1 (whitepaper), using significance level 0.001 for the p-value. The user is free to use another significance level e.g. 0.01, 0.05 for the test.
Switzerland / U.S. Foreign Exchange Rate USDCHF
🟢
p-value: 0.245
> 0.001
Trades
Each model casts a single vote on the likely direction of change. If a trade is executed, the size, in terms of the number of shares or lots, is proportional to the majority vote, and the trade is kept open for the duration of the forecast horizon, which is 6m. This exercise is repeated every day.
The position for the next day, averaged over the sizes of currently opened trades, is as follows
|
% Up |
% Down |
% Undecided |
| Switzerland / U.S. Foreign Exchange Rate USDCHF |
6% |
94% |
0% |
with respect to the time point respectively,
|
Time |
Value |
| Switzerland / U.S. Foreign Exchange Rate USDCHF |
Tue 2024-12-10 UTC |
0.883 |
Performance of Past Trades
The Sharpe ratio is calculated on returns measured as the difference between values rather than in percentage, assuming zero trading cost.
Switzerland / U.S. Foreign Exchange Rate USDCHF
|
Active |
Buy-and-Hold |
Sharpe ratio
(the higher the better) |
0.32
|
-
|
Solvency II Value-at-Risk 99.5%
(the lower the better) |
0.0284
|
0.0743
|