SPDR S&P 500 ETF

6m (24w) ahead

Top Predictive Factors

Causally predictive factors for the value of the selected instrument at the time point 6m (24w) away.

Technology Sector SPDR ETF

Materials Sector SPDR ETF

Walmart

Abbott Laboratories

as of Thu 2025-12-04 UTC

Our Probabilistic Prediction

We train a group of models, each predicting a set of possible outcomes for the time point 6m (24w) away. Below are all predictions as of Thu 2025-12-04 UTC.

Goodness of Probabilistic Prediction

For any date, the prediction plotted in graded colored bars are calculated 6m (24w) prior to that date. We test the hypothesis that it follow the uniform distribution between 0 and 1 on each sample of realised probability levels taken 6m (24w) apart (whitepaper). If the computed p-value for any sample is below a pre-set threshold, the hypothesis is rejected. Below is the sample producing the lowest p-value.

🟢 p-value: 0.008 > 0.001

Trades

Next-Day Position

Each model casts a vote "up", "down" or "undecided" on the direction of change from the calculation time to the time point 6m (24w) away. The signal is the net vote (percentage of "up" votes minus percentage of "down" votes). As each signal output over the recent 6m (24w) concerns the next day, the next-day position is the average of the signals calculated over the last 6m (24w).

	% Up	% Down	% Undecided
SPDR S&P 500 ETF	82%	0%	18%

with respect to the time point respectively,

	Time	Value
SPDR S&P 500 ETF	Thu 2025-12-04 UTC	684.39

Performance of Past Trades

The Sharpe ratio is calculated on returns measured as the difference between values rather than in percentage, assuming zero trading cost.

SPDR S&P 500 ETF

	Active	Buy-and-Hold
Sharpe ratio (the higher the better)	1.13	1.19
Solvency II Value-at-Risk 99.5% (the lower the better)	-	1.95