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Search for causal predictors that predict the values of stocks, assets and markets at a future time point.

S&P 500 Nvidia US three equity indices US 20+ Year Bonds ETF

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6m (24w) ahead

Top Predictive Factors

Causally predictive factors for the values of US and ex-US markets, at the time point 6m (24w) away.

United Parcel Service

2025-05-17T17:57:37.947492 image/svg+xml Matplotlib v3.7.3, https://matplotlib.org/

NextEra Energy

2025-05-17T17:57:37.966430 image/svg+xml Matplotlib v3.7.3, https://matplotlib.org/

S&P Global Inc.

2025-05-17T17:57:37.985644 image/svg+xml Matplotlib v3.7.3, https://matplotlib.org/

ASML Holding N.V. New York Registry Shares

2025-05-17T17:57:38.010062 image/svg+xml Matplotlib v3.7.3, https://matplotlib.org/

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Newsletter

CPRT used car auction service floats to top driving factor 2 days before US tariff on auto parts comes into effect

2025 April: Volatile semiconductor/tech driving US stock indices

JPMorgan JPM: tsterm.com computed daily position starts shaving off since October 2024, realising higher Sharpe ratio (return-to-risk ratio)

War and liberal economics: analysis of the US dollar to China Yuan exchange rate. By rolling back tariff to 10%, most international revenue of US companies got protected, as well as Chinese investment outside China.

How fast can Buffett sell his stock portfolio down to zero holding? Up to 1 year, generally. Regarding AAPL, Buffett and tsterm.com arrived at similar holding today, under comparable trading speed.

How to find Buffett's AAPL holding from SEC.gov?

2025 March: semiconductor resetting to 2023-2024 level, some consumer service resetting to 2020 level driving US equity 6 months out

Velocity of money: how many times one dollar changes hand in an economy

2025 February: Gold, oil and gas energy driving US equity six months out

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